Hurricane Season and the NYC area-- Are you prepared for another Sandy, Power Outages, Etc?

The Hurricane Season has gotten off to a very slow start, it seems to be, but the Weather Channel on the internet suggests that the situation is worse and more complicated than that.

August is not even much of a Hurricane Month, it is just the taking off place..

Following article will make you aware why should have water, emergency radio, emergency lamps as well as flashlight(s) and even evacuation plans in mind for the Fall.

Hurricane Season: Quiet or Typical Start?

Jon ErdmanPublished: Aug 5, 2013, 3:37 PM EDTweather.com

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This graph illustrates the dates by which you see an average Xth named storm in the Atlantic Basin in an average year. For instance, by August 1, we've typically seen the season's second named storm.

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We've had four named storms so far in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. None of them managed to become hurricanes, all succumbing either to land, dry air or wind shear.
Last week, we had a significant intrusion of African dust, embedded in a so-called Saharan Air Layer (SAL), push westward into the Caribbean, helping to squelch any chances for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin.
(MORE:  Tropical Update | Interactive Satellite)
Does this mean the hurricane season is underachieving?

Dorian Birth Point vs. Late July Average

The Heart of the Season is Ahead

As you can see in the graph at the top of this article, in an average Atlantic hurricane season, we typically see two named storms by early August. Simply going by numbers of named storms, we've roughly doubled the pace, so far.
Two of the four named storms so far, Chantal and Dorian, formed in the central and eastern "main development region" (MDR). The MDR is an east-west strip of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea from Africa to the Central American coast in which the majority of Atlantic hurricanes are born.
While not strengthening to hurricanes, the fact Chantal and Dorian managed to form at all well east of the Lesser Antilles in July is impressive.Typically in July, the aforementioned SAL intrusions, coupled with increased wind shear, render much of the eastern Atlantic Basin off-limits for tropical cyclone development.
According to Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground director of meteorology (blog), Dorian was the second most easterly Atlantic Basin tropical storm so early in the season, in satellite-era records dating to 1966. The map above, at right, shows Dorian's formation point (as a depression) compared to the other July 21-31 origin points of named storms.

No Hurricane ...Yet

Again, none of the four named storms have managed to attain hurricane status. We're in early August now. How unusual is this wait to the season's first Atlantic hurricane?
Answer:  It's typical.

	Named Storms / Hurricanes After July
2012	15 of 19  /  9 of 10
2011	15 of 19  /  All 7
2010	17 of 19  /  11 of 12

The average date we see the first Atlantic hurricane is not until Aug. 10, according to the 1966-2009 average calculated by the National Hurricane Center.
Looking at the past three hurricane seasons (2010-2012), 27 of the 29 Atlantic hurricanes formed after July 31.
Only 2010's Hurricane Alex and 2012's strange Hurricane Chris jumped the climatological early August starting line.
The larger point here, is the lion's share of the Atlantic hurricane season lies ahead!
From 1981-2010, roughly 80 percent of all Atlantic Basin named storms formed in the three-month period from August through October.
Are you truly prepared for a hurricane?  What if your area is without power for days or weeks?  Do you live in an evacuation zone?  Check out our WeatherREADY hurricane safety page for tips on how to prepare yourself and your property for hurricanes every season!
   MORE ON WEATHER.COM:  Cantore's Top Three Hurricanes

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